Crisis in Ukraine: is Russia playing the “slow poison” game?

The current situation between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of normalization. Instead, they spend their time attacking and repelling each other. Last August 24 was Ukraine’s Independence Day, and six months have also passed since the Russian invasion. It is estimated that over thirteen thousand people have lost their lives in this ongoing war. However, Ukraine’s military capability cannot be compared to Russia’s. Because Russia is considered one of the world’s superpowers. Therefore, why is Russia slowly pushing Ukraine to the brink of collapse with a series of minor attacks? Is this part of a Russian strategy?

It is undeniable that Russia’s reputation as one of the most powerful countries in the world is in question due to the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army. If Russia were to take over all of Ukraine right now, international politics would be radically changed. But another thing here is that a country cannot be occupied at will where everyone in the West supports it, as is the case with Ukraine.

It should be noted that Russia has continued to attack Ukraine on a small scale since the beginning of the war, but has not carried out any major attacks. However, attacks occur regularly. Even on this Independence Day, Russian forces launched a missile attack on a Ukrainian train station and nearby residential area, killing 25 people. In this regard, Russia is essentially turning the country towards collapse. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s stock has rapidly declined. It’s not like nothing happened to Russia; it also suffered significant losses. But Ukraine’s situation is worse than Russia’s. The country now depends on Western support for armaments.

So if Russia prolongs this war, Ukraine will inevitably become a mess. But, even if Russia leaves Ukraine in a short period of time, the conflict inside Ukraine will persist. Because the Ukrainian people have already been divided into two groups. One is anti-Russian, while the other is pro-Russian.

However, Ukraine was once the third largest nuclear-armed country in the world. But after signing the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, Ukraine handed over some weapons to Russia in exchange for the price of fuel gas imported from it and destroyed some of them in 1996.

Nevertheless, many analysts are trying to figure out the reason for Russia’s stumble amid strong Ukrainian resistance. It’s supposed to be a Russian strategy. The longer the Ukrainian army resists the Russians, the greater their confidence in battle. As a result, Ukraine will be fully involved in the desire to win the war. And one day they will need more weapons and soldiers than they have now.

In addition, there are fears of food shortages due to rising commodity prices. Moreover, Ukraine will have to struggle to provide everything to its citizens. If their demands are not met, the fall of the ruling government in Ukraine, as in Sri Lanka, will be inevitable. And once that happens, many analysts believe that Russia will put its ideologues in power or, through the division of Ukraine, will complete the process of creating several autonomous nations.

Since the start of the war, the West has been committed to supporting Ukraine. Often they cooperated with weapons and weapons. However, the West will not wage all war. Even if they wanted to, they could not regularly supply weapons. Because Western arms producers are already under pressure to meet Ukraine’s arms demands. In addition, oil prices in Western countries, especially the United States, have reached their highest level in several years, which economists consider harmful to all nations. At some point, Western countries will be preoccupied with their own economic crisis. Meanwhile, Republican leaders in the United States have called for cuts in aid to Ukraine and asked President Joe Biden to focus more on domestic issues than wars abroad.

And if the West continues to supply arms to Ukraine in this way, it is also a question of whether they will face a shortage of arms in the future in the event of a major conflict with them. Because the current situation between the United States and China over Taiwan could escalate at any time, and once a conflict develops, the whole Western world will focus their attention on it. Therefore, countries will not be able to help Ukraine at that time.

As a result, Ukraine will become alienated. And by then, everything from armaments to national political, economic and societal structures will have fallen. In other words, Russia is doing the same thing in a slightly different way, which would have been encountered if it had been done directly, with several national and international barriers. The effect of current planning will be exponentially greater, much like “more profit with less capital”.

So if Russia prolongs this war, Ukraine will inevitably become a mess. But, even if Russia leaves Ukraine in a short period of time, the conflict inside Ukraine will persist. Because the Ukrainian people have already been divided into two groups. One is anti-Russian, while the other is pro-Russian.

The conflict between these two ideologies will continue with absolute certainty. Russia can formally withdraw, but that does not mean that it will cease all interference in Ukraine. Russia, on the contrary, will provide arms to its supporters just as the West currently does to anti-Russians.

Therefore, Ukraine will experience a civil war, the intensity of which will increase over time. Some analysts are so convinced of Ukraine’s impending collapse that regardless of Putin’s triumph or defeat, they believe Ukraine will inevitably descend into destruction and its current leaders will either be assassinated or seek refuge in Europe. But it is true that Ukraine as a whole has already entered a sort of death trap. The country must pay for it.

Christi C. Elwood