Crisis in Ukraine: S7 Airlines close to pre-pandemic recovery despite conflict, reports RadarBox

LONDON – According to data from RadarBox.comS7 Airlines is approaching pre-pandemic recovery on flight movement statistics despite the ongoing Ukraine crisis.

The airline may be suffering from penalties and a lack of aircraft parts, but it is doing well when it comes to those stats.

Without further ado, let’s get to the numbers…

Numbers…


From October 29 to November 5, the airline recorded 306 movements, a decrease of 14.04% compared to the same period last year.

However, the airline only has 23 movements left to reach pre-pandemic figures, which remains quite an achievement despite the international airspace bans caused by such sanctions.

Below is the data for the last four weeks for the carrier:

Date 2019 figures 2021 numbers 2022 numbers Percentage difference (2022 vs. 2021)
October 1-8 323 moves 376 moves 336 movements -10.64%
October 8-15 322 moves 364 moves 330 movements -9.34%
October 15-22 314 movements 362 moves 331 moves -8.56%
October 21-29 308 moves 356 moves 322 moves -9.55%

What you can see from the data for the last four weeks is that despite having lower numbers than 2021, they’re actually performing better than the 2019 numbers, which is quite the anomaly in the falling data .

October 29 to November 5 is the first week of the past five that they haven’t beaten the pre-pandemic move count.

However, falling below pre-pandemic levels for this week looks likely to become a trend, as around 295 moves are expected for this week based on the seven-day moving average.

This is 7.52% less than the 2021 figures, but almost 30 movements less than the pre-pandemic figure of 323 movements.

Events affecting S7 during the Ukraine crisis…


The Ukraine crisis saw three major announcements regarding S7 Airlines, which of course hampered any form of revenue generation internationally.

The first news came in early March when Alaska Airlines has announced the suspension of its partnerships with the Russian carrier as well as Aeroflot.

As of March 4, the airline then announced the suspension of all international flights due to the sanctions not allowing the aircraft to enter the respective airspaces and FIRs, as well as the risk of the aircraft being repossessed.

Such attempts to repossess had been made before, especially with the chaos which emerged in Colombo, Sri Lanka, when an Aeroflot Airbus A330 was grounded due to court orders.

The ban was later liftedbut it certainly put into perspective the reluctance of Russian carriers to operate to international destinations.

To finish, the airline was later suspended by the oneworld alliance in Aprilwhich would have reduced the airline’s revenue capture, in line with the sanctions announced by the West.

Globally…


The main question that needs to be asked here is what the airline’s revenue streams currently look like.

With the airline able to maintain roughly pre-pandemic levels, if load factors aren’t that high, it won’t equate to a financial recovery.

Moreover, because of the sanctions, it will be even more difficult for S7 Airlines to earn money in the future.

Christi C. Elwood