The war will reduce the Ukrainian economy by at least a third
The National Bank of Ukraine estimates the war-related economic contraction to be at least a third of pre-war levels.
This was stated by the first vice-president of the NBU, Kateryna Rozhkova, who spoke at a spring business forum in Lviv, reports a correspondent of Ukrinform.
“According to our estimates, the economy could fall by at least a third,” Rozhkova said.
According to the senior official, this will depend on the duration of the war and the part of Ukrainian territory it will cover.
Thus, in March, hostilities engulfed 10 regions producing 55% of Ukraine’s total GDP. Already in April, hostilities covered areas that accounted for around 20% of GDP. At the same time, supply chains have been destroyed across Ukraine.
“According to our estimates, the physical loss of business assets – premises, capacities, etc. – is estimated at around 100 billion dollars. This is for today, but the war continues,” Rozhkova said.
Advanter Group experts estimated the total direct losses of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ukraine as a result of the large-scale Russian invasion at $64-85 billion.
According to the NBU, at the end of April, the number of companies that completely ceased operations fell to 17%, from 32% recorded at the start of the full-scale war.