Ukrainian News: Vladimir Putin’s Invasion Plans Threatened by ‘Weak’ Ruble | World | News

On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron told the media that the Russian president’s troops had assured him that the Russian president’s troops would not advance into Ukraine any time soon. Mr Macron said: “I got assurances that there would be no deterioration or escalation.” Russia currently has more than 100,000 people massed on the Ukrainian border, although it denies any intention to invade.

But the former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Professor Sergei Guriev, told that Western sanctions are weighing heavily on the Russian economy.

He added: “An obvious indicator is ruble weakness – while Russian oil is trading at $95 a barrel, the ruble is at 75 rubles/dollar.”

He cited a comparison with pre-Crimea levels when the rate was 33 rubles to the dollar, with the price of oil only slightly higher.

Russia was hit with sanctions in 2014 after annexing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula to global condemnation.

Professor Guriev warned that Russia would be able to avoid an economic “collapse” if it were to invade Ukraine, but Russians are likely to be deeply “unhappy” with the consequences of such an incursion.

He said: “If Russia invades Ukraine and major financial sanctions are introduced, Russia will still be able to avoid macroeconomic collapse – because it has a balanced budget, huge foreign exchange reserves, low debt and a large sovereign wealth fund.

“It is highly unlikely that the West will introduce an embargo on oil and gas.

“Without such an embargo, [the] The Russian economy will continue to stagnate.

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“When Russia annexed Crimea, it didn’t expect any setbacks (like in 2008).

“When the United States introduced sanctions against personal friends of Mr. Putin in March 2014, the dynamic changed – and after Donetsk and Luhansk held their referendums in May 2014, Russia did not follow suit. the Crimean scenario.

“To this day, Russia recognizes that Donetsk and Luhansk are part of Ukraine.

“The most painful “sectoral” sanctions were introduced in August-September 2014 (after [the]downing of flight MH17).

“It brought Russia to the negotiating table – so the Minsk agreements were concluded.

“Furthermore, Russia has stopped talking about ‘Novorossia’ (in the spring 2014 speeches, Putin hinted that Russia wanted to claim 6 regions in southeastern Ukraine, not just 2).”

Christi C. Elwood