Wheat falls as Russian-Ukrainian news dries up – Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltese

— Wheat for December delivery fell 1% to $9.13 1/2 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, reacting to weak news from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

— Corn for December delivery rose 0.5% to $6.81 a bushel.

— Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.8% to $13.76 a bushel.

STRONG POINTS

Stale News: A lack of new developments in the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused wheat futures to tumble in trading on Monday.

“Wheat took a breather after Friday’s rally on intermarket spread rationalization and lack of concrete news from the Black Sea,” ED&F Man Capital’s Charlie Sernatinger said in a note.

Wheat futures jumped 3% on Friday in response to surprising quarterly reports from the USDA on stocks and production of small grains.

Outside influence: Grain futures were mixed on Monday. Traders wondered how volatile movements in the outside markets should affect CBOT futures.

“Grains are trading mixed today as trade debates whether external market uncertainty is expected to impact agricultural markets and if so, to what extent?” Rich Nelson of Allendale Inc. told the WSJ.

Nelson added that his current focus is on the crude oil market, where this continuing contract rose 5.1%.

Oil prices are affecting renewable fuels production margins, as is the US dollar, which is down 0.3%.

Trans-Pacific Connection: Strength in Asian palm oil futures supported the soybean complex on the CBOT on Monday, with the most active CBOT soybean oil contract closing up 3.2%. As a result, soybeans were lifted throughout the day.

For palm oil, the price strength is due to expectations of lower inventories amid higher exports, although the decline in inventories may soon fade.

“Analysts expect cash and futures prices to decline by year-end due to increased supply,” Terry Reilly of Futures International said in a note.

KNOWLEDGE

Lack of interest: Open interest in agricultural futures has fallen over the past week, marking the biggest drop in that value in six weeks, JP Morgan’s commodities research team says in a rating. The company reports that open interest on agricultural futures fell $6.2 billion over the past week to a total of $277.7 billion, reducing open interest gain over the past week. from last month to just $3.1 billion.

Meanwhile, total commodity interest fell $15.5 billion to $1.13 trillion. The decline is driven by shifts in energy and precious metals.

More inspections: According to USDA data, export inspections for US row crops have increased over the past week.

In its latest report on grain export inspections, the USDA said corn inspections totaled 661,658 metric tons for the week ended Sept. 29, up from 549,608 tons the previous week.

Soybean inspections totaled 575,220 tonnes versus 291,413 tonnes last week, and wheat inspections totaled 667,577 tonnes versus 589,207 tonnes previously.

China was the main destination for US corn, while Algeria, Germany and Italy were the main destinations for US wheat. The Philippines and China were the main destinations for wheat.

AHEAD

— The EIA is due to release its weekly ethanol production and inventory report at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

— Conagra Brands Inc. is due to release its fiscal first quarter results at 7:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

— The USDA is due to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswire

10-03-22 1519ET

Christi C. Elwood